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On Sunday, the nation of CAR will hold a significant quadruple election, including the presidency, parliament, and local seats.

A Crowded Race for the Presidency

A field of seven contenders are competing for the top office, including former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. Both men were cleared to stand by the constitutional court after being initially barred. Dologuélé was the runner-up in the last two elections, while Dondra had a short tenure under the incumbent.

Challengers' Strategy and Voter Frustrations

The opposition aims to tap into widespread frustration in a country where conflict remains a constant threat. Over half a million people are internally displaced, with a comparable figure living as refugees in bordering states.

"This is an chance to commend the significant progress of the country," said a senior UN diplomat, though he added that challenges persist.

Touadéra's Expected Victory

Despite the competition, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a one-time academic, is widely expected to secure another term. He transitioned into politics in 2008 when named prime minister, serving until a rebel coalition toppled the government in 2013, sparking a civil war.

After a chaotic three-year interim, his reputation for impartiality from the main militias powered his runoff win in 2016.

Security Concerns and Voting Challenges

There are fears that logistical problems and violence could mar the electoral process, particularly in rural areas. The UN peacekeeping mission, Minusca, is offering protection and logistical support that the country's weak systems cannot manage.

Further issues include the voter list being made available only digitally, a major hurdle in a nation with scarce online access. These issues have led to an electoral boycott and could, according to observers, "exclude many of the electorate."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many residents worry that another term for Touadéra—made possible by a 2023 charter change that scrapped term limits and lengthened mandates—would entail greater influence for outside interests.

The president has relied on the Russian mercenary group Wagner for his protection, and even after its founder's death, has resisted calls to integrate its fighters into a successor entity. Meanwhile, Rwanda has pursued a separate strategy, focusing on commercial ventures within CAR.

Claims of National Disposal

Recent reports have stated the government evicted its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded training centre to make way for a Rwandan livestock operation. A critical commentary accused the leadership of being "determined to dispose of the nation piece by piece."

Despite a newly signed agreement with rebel groups offering a glimmer of calm, the vote proceeds under a shadow of uncertainty and external competition.