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Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another independent nation and abduct its leader – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may regret it if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.